Fun with Data

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gedweyignasia
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Fun with Data

Unread post by gedweyignasia »

Hey, so we've got some fun and very preliminary data that I got permission to share with you. We're mostly interested in what areas people use so that we can create areas that respond to players' needs. Haven't gotten though that analysis yet, but I do have some fun stuff about how we play.

Let's start with a breakdown of where everybody gets their XP.
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... not a lot of fishermen in Baldur's Gate.

So clearly people in BGTSCC like combat for leveling. How do they go about that?
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Most of the XP comes from parties, but nearly half is from solo players.

Does that mean the average player does most of their fighting in a party?
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Not quite! Parties give XP to lots of people per creature, so fewer creatures killed in a party can translate into a big share of the server's XP. However, your average player earns more than half of their combat XP solo. This might mean that the XP curve is a little too forgiving, and isn't pushing players to party up and take on a bigger challenge. We'll have to break it down by area later and find out.

What about RP? Let's take a look at that initial pie chart again, but break it down by party size.
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It looks like parties are a good mix of RP and combat! Just what we'd hope for. The results kind of break down after party size 7, because we have very little data for larger parties. It looks like a DM had an event with 11 people in it, though!

Do lower-level players tend to party up more than high-levels, or vice-versa?
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There's a change in behavior from low-level to high-level, and it looks like PCs tend to form bigger parties at higher levels, but the share of their XP that people get in parties of various sizes is only weakly correlated with their level. It's interesting to see some people's average party size was greater than 3, meaning they spent the vast majority of their time in decent sized parties. (Wish I was that popular!)


What do these parties look like? In the graph below, blue is the average difference in XP between party members and orange is the largest difference. We're only counting party members who were in the same area during combat, so if your friend stayed at the tavern, that won't affect this next graph.
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Well, at the low levels it's a lot of characters who are very, very close in level. Makes sense; you can only party up with people somewhat close to your level, and the difference between your level and the next is only a thousand XP at first. Things get pretty crazy around 200,000 XP though. Why? That's where the epic levels start! They end around 430k to 530k XP, depending on your race. You can see the spread taper down as you approach 530k XP, since there's nowhere higher to go.

That's pretty cool, but how many PCs are there to party up with at each level?
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Well, if you're Lv30, you're in good company.

If we take a closer look, just over 27% of the active population is Lv30.
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There are a few clumps elsewhere, but it's a fairly even distribution. You'll have twice as many friends to choose from at some levels and half as many at others, but never a 1/10th or 10x, unless you compare to Lv30. When you account for the fact that parties can be spread out by a few levels, that means it's pretty OK and there's no points in the level distribution where you just can't find a party or partner.

Are there any levels where it's really hard to grind because there are no areas made for you?
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It doesn't look like it. You see a pronounced dip around 15 that's a little troubling and a weird, sharp dip at 23 (might be an artifact because we only have 38 days of data here), but for the most part the amount of combat XP increases roughly linearly with level. That makes sense, because the amount of XP you need to get to the next level increases linearly, so people are earning XP at about the same rate until they get to the epics. Things really slope downwards at the epics.

Let's see how much XP people are getting per kill.
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I see 3-4 bumps centered on 1, 8, 14, and 18. Those last two might just be one big bump spanning 14-18, or they might be two separate, overlapping bumps. These bumps probably point to really good grinding spots, where players are able to level very efficiently. things really go downhill in the epics, though. Players get progressively less and less XP. Even if epic creatures give less XP in general, you'd expect this to hold steady through the whole range. What's going on?

It helps to look at the average by total XP earned on the server, instead of the average by player.
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This one shows those same bumps, but cleaner/smoother, and it has much less drop off in the epics. Why is that? This means that there's a lot of XP being earned by a smaller subset of the playerbase fighting harder monsters in the epics. Whether these players are partying up, power-building, or just taking bigger risks, the data tell a very clear story: When you get to the epic levels, a few players are earning XP much faster by taking on a bigger challenge.

So how do people earn XP in the epics?
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On average? A little more questing, a lot more roleplay. Roleplay XP makes up a small but steady fraction of your XP early on, but when the combat starts getting harder, that RP XP grows and overtakes it. It effectively doubles the rate at which you progress through the epics, so any buffs or nerfs to RP XP will really change the epic portion of the grind to Lv30 for most players.

Let's take a look at how fast different players and characters make that grind.
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Omitting any earning less than 5,000xp or more than 400,000xp, here's what the distribution looked like. I've rounded the data to the nearest 10,000xp and then plotted the percent of players or PCs that fit that description. Each account can have multiple PCs, so it's not surprising that accounts tend to out-earn PCs.

Refining our scope to just combat XP, we see that the accounts earning the most combat XP do not correspond to an individual PC. (Red dots earning the most XP have blue dots at 0%; no characters earn as much XP as that account does.)
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Dalo astutely observed that this probably means a player is grinding loot and wants to change PCs between runs so they can hit chests which are now on cooldown. Makes sense; it's not against the rules, and it's a rational behavior given the way the server has set up its incentives.

I wonder if people who do more RP tend to have a lot of alts, too.
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Nope. Our most dedicated RP'ers tend to stick to just one toon, it appears. There are a few up there who are comfortable playing a larger cast of characters, though.

Alright, what about quests? I remember the pie chart from the very beginning showed those gave almost as much XP as RP does.
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Wow, quest XP is all for alts! . . Okay, not quite. Quests can only be done once per week, so there's necessarily a cap on the quest XP. That means players who play only a single character can't possibly keep up with accounts with alts when it comes to quest XP. And you see how many players don't use alts, because their quest XP caps low! (Pay close attention to the y-axis on these last 4 plots; they aren't scaled evenly with one another. The first red dot here is only slightly lower than where the first blue dot was on the others.)

Fin!

Epilogue: Here's that bar graph of combat xp share by party size translated into a pie chart.
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Shrink that blue section for me! Especially you folks in the epics; the data are telling you to fight harder monsters!
Disclaimer:
This is ~38 days and ~340 players. It's not the whole server, it's not the whole year. Patterns change, and these are relatively small numbers to be working with. Don't take this as gospel. The server is constantly changing; both the world and the players.
Edits:
2021/12/8 - Changed a graph from avg party size vs XP to avg party size vs PC level and a weak trend is now visible that was previously obscured because the low levels were crammed into a small space.
Last edited by gedweyignasia on Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:57 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Steve
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Steve »

Wait…did I sign a consent to have my data collected?!?!? <:D

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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by gedweyignasia »

Steve wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:03 am Wait…did I sign a consent to have my data collected?!?!? <:D
We threw out all of the data on you in particular because it was shocking and appalling. You should be ashamed of the way you ████ ██ █████ ████ ███ █████ ███ ███ █████████ █████ ██████ ██████. 😉
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Steve »

I know, I know…I’ve been trying to hide behind anonymity all these years, but alas, I am but the sum of my digital footprint. :cry:

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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Steve »

But on a serious note, to my eyes, it seems the data collected shows the Server is clearly skewed toward Solo Play Experience, and, that being Lvl 30 is not only the obvious end result, it is…the end result. lol.

What the data doesn’t show, and what it can’t show in such a small timeframe, is the length in which PCs stayed in any particular Level or level group (low, mid or epic). I’d be very interested in that chart, because I’ve always believed the Server is not “run” in a way to give a strong low-mid Level/Character experience. That there is a missed opportunity to support lowbies and middies in Role-play and adventure, making it a rewarding experience outside just collecting XP and the off-chance of good treasure finds (which we know is mechanically throttled at the lower CRs).

Essentially, after one levels their third BGTSC toon, leveling losses it’s value, in a meta sense—one just starts to see it as the “grind to 30,” because we all know the Server is RP geared to endpoint toon play.

I’m not suggesting a “WE NEED LIMITS ENFORCED!!” but I think it’s very healthy to make the entire Level One to Thirty experience rich, and not just a “gonna kill 7 million xvart by Friday for a Saturday Epic Toon Only Event.”

Anyway, nice data porn!! :dance: :naughty:

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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by gedweyignasia »

Steve wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:37 am What the data doesn’t show, and what it can’t show in such a small timeframe, is the length in which PCs stayed in any particular Level or level group (low, mid or epic). I’d be very interested in that chart, because I’ve always believed the Server is not “run” in a way to give a strong low-mid Level/Character experience. That there is a missed opportunity to support lowbies and middies in Role-play and adventure, making it a rewarding experience outside just collecting XP and the off-chance of good treasure finds (which we know is mechanically throttled at the lower CRs).

Essentially, after one levels their third BGTSC toon, leveling losses it’s value, in a meta sense—one just starts to see it as the “grind to 30,” because we all know the Server is RP geared to endpoint toon play.

I’m not suggesting a “WE NEED LIMITS ENFORCED!!” but I think it’s very healthy to make the entire Level One to Thirty experience rich, and not just a “gonna kill 7 million xvart by Friday for a Saturday Epic Toon Only Event.”
You can extrapolate this from the "XP Gain for November-ish" graph, which shows you how quickly characters and accounts gained XP in a month. It's not stratified by level, but you can look at the combat XP per level graph to see how that changes.
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by DM Winter »

Don't have much to add here since I'm pretty illiterate on this, but DAMN THATS SO F*CKING COOL!

Love comparing my own experience with the average. Thank you for sharing it with us <3
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Most Horrible »

gedweyignasia wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:47 amShrink that blue section for me! Especially you folks in the epics; the data are telling you to fight harder monsters!
The blue section is the easiest to shrink in all due honesty, all you have to do is hire some people to be online 24/7 in order to actually have enough players to party up.

And anyhow, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I do not know what kind of data you have actually gathered, and whether or not you can actually use that data set to form these charts and tables for specifically the low and peak hours of the server, while also allowing some consideration towards rising and waning player numbers.

As for encouraging players to fight harder monsters, well, remove the experience penalty on death. Those higher difficulty monsters have a tendency to keep scaling up with party level and thus it does create an incentive to party up with some lower level characters just in order to spawn in those weaker monsters. But if the lower level player in the party keeps getting fugued time and again it will be more fun for the entire party to just go to some lower CR area instead, and actually have the breathing space to role-play while fighting against monsters. You do not have worry about key buffs running out, or the low level character getting one round ROFLESTOMPED by some randomly spawned in trap or mob.

Oh, and if you remove the ability for players to hide their location and level in the Scrying Tool, you will have more parties. For example, personally, if I see someone who is "Looking For Group" in the Scrying tool with either level or location is hidden, or both, I will not bother sending a single tell to party up. I will simply take it as a sign that someone else wishes to enjoy some privacy, and I will respect that desire and let these players "Look For Their Group" in silence.
gedweyignasia wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:47 amDalo astutely observed that this probably means a player is grinding loot and wants to change PCs between runs so they can hit chests which are now on cooldown. Makes sense; it's not against the rules, and it's a rational behavior given the way the server has set up its incentives.

And I would say that there is another explanation to consider: different builds will face different challenges at different levels at the same area. Thus when a player simply grows too fed up trying to level up a character that struggles to kill things, nothing really stops that player from simply logging out and back in on a different character, which may have considerably easier time on the server. If you see a party in some area, you can switch characters and go play with that party, which in turn will increase the amount of experience gained.

And anyhow, when it comes to party size, does it only take into account player characters or do things like summons, cohorts, animal companions, and the like actually bloat up those numbers of yours?
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by gedweyignasia »

Most Horrible wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:37 am I do not know what kind of data you have actually gathered, and whether or not you can actually use that data set to form these charts and tables for specifically the low and peak hours of the server, while also allowing some consideration towards rising and waning player numbers.
I can. That's a great idea!
Most Horrible wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:37 am As for encouraging players to fight harder monsters, well, remove the experience penalty on death. Those higher difficulty monsters have a tendency to keep scaling up with party level and thus it does create an incentive to party up with some lower level characters just in order to spawn in those weaker monsters. But if the lower level player in the party keeps getting fugued time and again it will be more fun for the entire party to just go to some lower CR area instead, and actually have the breathing space to role-play while fighting against monsters. You do not have worry about key buffs running out, or the low level character getting one round ROFLESTOMPED by some randomly spawned in trap or mob.
I want players to take on larger challenges, because I want to see a greater risk/reward going on for PCs. I want something to be at stake when adventuring, to make the gameplay more meaningful. I also really want to shrink the blue bar (percent of combat XP earned by solo players), because solo PCs don't get to RP while they grind. (Although I think the data don't properly express the fact that people RP and fight in parties, but they don't do it simultaneously; it's either a big chunk of one, a big chunk of the other, or long periods of each. I'll have to look for a way to interrogate that.)

Most Horrible wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:37 am Oh, and if you remove the ability for players to hide their location and level in the Scrying Tool, you will have more parties. For example, personally, if I see someone who is "Looking For Group" in the Scrying tool with either level or location is hidden, or both, I will not bother sending a single tell to party up. I will simply take it as a sign that someone else wishes to enjoy some privacy, and I will respect that desire and let these players "Look For Their Group" in silence.
I wish we hadn't made the Scry location and level hidden by default. Maybe they'll change that back with this look at the data, but perhaps not. When someone is "Looking for Group" with hidden location and level, I assume they're a little uncomfortable sharing that information because of RP reasons, but I'll certainly ask, "Hey, what level range are you, and what areas were you thinking of going?" Especially if I know the player!
Most Horrible wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:37 am
gedweyignasia wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:47 amDalo astutely observed that this probably means a player is grinding loot and wants to change PCs between runs so they can hit chests which are now on cooldown. Makes sense; it's not against the rules, and it's a rational behavior given the way the server has set up its incentives.

And I would say that there is another explanation to consider: different builds will face different challenges at different levels at the same area. Thus when a player simply grows too fed up trying to level up a character that struggles to kill things, nothing really stops that player from simply logging out and back in on a different character, which may have considerably easier time on the server. If you see a party in some area, you can switch characters and go play with that party, which in turn will increase the amount of experience gained.
That was my original interpretation! I think Dalo's makes more sense, but I'll be able to tell when I get to further analyze the data. It contains all the information necessary to answer those questions.
Most Horrible wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:37 am And anyhow, when it comes to party size, does it only take into account player characters or do things like summons, cohorts, animal companions, and the like actually bloat up those numbers of yours?
Great question! Party size is strictly PCs. No bloating up these numbers!
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Hoihe »

People have justifiable reasons to solo. Be that due to OOC or IC, it shouldn't matter. Allow people to solo. Forcing people to party up with those they are uncomfortable with OOC, or to force them to break character just to be able to play the game, will just drive off players.
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by EasternCheesE »

Hoihe wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:06 pm People have justifiable reasons to solo. Be that due to OOC or IC, it shouldn't matter. Allow people to solo. Forcing people to party up with those they are uncomfortable with OOC, or to force them to break character just to be able to play the game, will just drive off players.
Banning solo play was never and will never be an option. We look into ways to make it so people party more, but not by forcing solo play being less available.
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Ghost »

There's no attempt to restict solo play in the plans. Just further incentivise and encourage party play.
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Hoihe »

EasternCheesE wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:37 pm
Hoihe wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:06 pm People have justifiable reasons to solo. Be that due to OOC or IC, it shouldn't matter. Allow people to solo. Forcing people to party up with those they are uncomfortable with OOC, or to force them to break character just to be able to play the game, will just drive off players.
Banning solo play was never and will never be an option. We look into ways to make it so people party more, but not by forcing solo play being less available.
The language used in OP, and past experience, shows that such changes are always done through subtractive design - meaning, limit options available to force it, rather than additive design - meaning, keep current choices and quality, and increase it further in special cases. Naturally, additive design has the risk of later adjustment across the board, which will turn it subtractive, but "since it affects everyone", there's a layer of deniability. (What I mean: implement extra rewards or difficulty for party play. A few months pass, make an overture about rewards being too good, or difficulty too low. Adjust things so the "extra" becomes baseline, while the original ends up greatly diminished. This is a clear risk even with additive design, but it's still way better (so long this sneaky tactic is prevented from being implemented or called out/protested) than outright substractive).
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by gedweyignasia »

DM Ghost wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:00 pm There's no attempt to restict solo play in the plans. Just further incentivise and encourage party play.
When players compare themselves to others, incentivizing one is necessarily disincentivizing the other. Even if they were fine before, players will feel the need to do better if others start doing better. I think it's fair to complain that something pushes the balance in a direction you don't like, even if it isn't taking anything away from you.

That said, my goal is to help refine all aspects of the game to make them better for character development. For a few different reasons, it's hard to make content that allows players to develop their characters' personality, stories, etc. when they're alone.

---

First and foremost, when nobody is watching, many players drop out of character a little bit; they behave a little more OOCly when engaging with static content. I do it too; this isn't a criticism of players, it's a statement about how our world isn't reactive enough to make them feel like they actually are their character. NPCs feel like wooden automatons or scarecrows. That makes it feel more like a sandbox, less like a story, and it's harder to play your role and immerse yourself.

The second issue is that our content is not dynamic enough to react to players very interestingly, and that we cannot create new content faster than players complete old content. (By content I mean quests, areas, puzzles, anything that might keep a player engaged.) So it's very, very difficult to build a game that immerses someone in their character without other characters present. Even with other characters present, many of the challenges given to the player are handled in a very OOC fashion (grinding loops, for instance), because the system rewards that behavior.

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There's no strong, meaningful result imposed upon the player (good or bad) as a consequence to their actions; it's just a slow crawl forwards. I think this is a common complaint players have, although they usually phrase it as a request to be able to influence/affect the world more. We're not meeting that need very well, so the result is that we depend on players to create their own stories and their own systems with meaning and consequences. That's where the actual RP happens in this server; it's that social web of characters, who they choose to interact with, and how. So as a designer, I want to make the world an interesting place for that to play out and give the players various pressures, rewards, scenes for storytelling, and opportunities to be creative.

The problem is, we loop back to the first point. Those same systems exist whether or not players are in a group, interacting with each other. They're going to go and use the machinery on their own to crank out the rewards as best they can, so that when they go back to their group, they have more social status, since we RP our sheets and those sheets tell us that some people are stronger than others. So that mechanism that was designed to create some stimulus for a social situation is instead a machine that someone will crank on their own, making it labor instead of play.

---

To that extent, I don't want to encourage solo play. I want players to be able to sustain themselves and manage from solo play, but I want them to have something they'd rather do than turn that crank all day. The problem is, the more rewarding the crank is, the more tempting it is, and the less liable they are to want to go socialize.

I think that's pretty clear in the data right now; the average player spends more time turning that crank alone than they do working together. There's a lot more to investigate, and this is barely a preliminary analysis, so I'm not recommending any drastic measures or anything like that.

---

I do think that it points to an issue in the way our server is structured right now, though, and it's going to take more investigation to figure out what that is. It would be a little heavy-handed and naive to say, "We need to nerf the XP curve and that will fix things so players have to group up to grind". Because players already want more XP, and most of them are behind the curve as they reach the epics, so what's actually pushing people to go solo? I don't want to stop them from sustaining themselves as a solo; I want to help them tell their story, and their story involves people.
Maybe we don't have the right set pieces in RP-focused areas that would allow PCs to make more friends and integrate themselves into the community more.

Maybe we have rules that are too restrictive, and lots of players can't access each other because the system is preventing characters from being somewhere they need to be for social purposes. Maybe it's the opposite problem and you have some rather puritanical character who can never find a group that's fit for her because there's always devil-worshippers in the group. It can even be both of those seemingly contradictory things at once. We really have to break down the topology, understand how PCs become acquainted with one another, and how that turns into lasting RP ties (or not). I'm not sure that I'm up to that task, since it's far outside of my specialization, but trying to answer those questions might help make this a more enjoyable experience for everyone.

---

I'm a single person on a development team of more than a dozen people, and I'm responsible for very few decisions and very little content. Please do not mistake my views here for staff or server policy; I'm explaining what my thought process is, what I worry about, and how I would like to help. There are far more active and authoritative developers out there who you can talk to about trying to create more content of the kind you would like to see. That goes equally for the people who agree with what I'm saying and for the people who disagree with it. I'm here to try to understand how the system works and help people figure out how to change it to suit their needs/desires, not to push my agenda on you.
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Re: Fun with Data

Unread post by Aspect of Sorrow »

I don't know that it says that a lessening of the mechanic is a response than it is to add content that is enjoyable and rewarding as a better alternative. As you point out, the world isn't alive, a product of adhering too much to NWN2's templatizing origin. Adding more grinding content doesn't appear as an answer, it'll follow the same recipe of what's already here. Stepping away from the toolset, away from the computer, consider concepts of immersion and what that would mean if we were to experience it in the real world, things that are enjoyable, and then work out mechanic application in the toolset. A bit more imaginative forethought saves time.
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